With HCL Technologies announcing 10,000 jobs for locals in the US and Europe, India Inc chose the WEF meet to send a strong message that Indian IT firms are creating and not stealing jobs in troubled western economies. Also, a message emerged from British Prime Minister David Cameron’s advice to the European Union (EU) that instead of being a threat, the emerging economies like India can be of great help to Europe. Concluding a Free Trade Agreement(FTA) with India by the year-end would be in Europe’s interest , he said. “We need to have a check-list to tackle the euro crisis… There has to be FTAs, bilateral trade agreements and EU trade agreements with countries like India and Singapore, among others by the end of the year,” he said. His plain-speak to Brussels (EU headquarters) comes against delay in trade-opening pact with India. Barely a day after President Barack Obama hit out against outsourcing, HCL Technologies’ Vice Chairman Vineet Nayar made a major announcement here that his company would create 10,000 locals jobs in the US and Europe in the next five years. “Companies in today’s world of globalisation need to create jobs wherever they go. We have taken a pioneering step,” he said. Wipro chief Azim Premji, known for his frank talk, said the issue of outsourcing is “getting hyped up since elections are coming up. The US has become over-sensitive on jobs”. Chairman of Mahindra Satyam Vineet Nayyar hinted at creating jobs in the western economies from where they get bulk of business. Source – Agencies. ©2009 Copyright by Invest In India

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Superrich business tycoons from India has strengthen Dubai’s position as the city with the most billionaires in the Middle East, according to a latest index that ranks Mumbai fifth largest hub of billionaires. The emirate is now home to the highest concentration of billionaires in the region – there are 14 of them — and ranks 18th globally, fresh data from WealthInsight, which analysed more than 1,300 billionaires, showed. New York was ranked as the city with highest number of billionaires, followed by Moscow, London and Hong Kong. “In terms of competition with Dubai, it has more to do with the Indian business,” Stephen Gross, a senior analyst in WealthInsight, was quoted as saying by The National newspaper. The UAE has a number of foreign national billionaires in the country, coming from countries including Bahrain, India, New Zealand, Pakistan and Saudi Arabia. “There’s a lot of Indians who are not residents in India, and those are the ones that Dubai and Singapore are both competing for. Both locations are also courting billionaires seeking a haven from having to pay taxes, particularly after scrutiny increased over accounts in Switzerland.” “Dubai could benefit from wealthier individuals coming into the emirate following the Arab Spring, and if more unrest in the region continues — but there had not been such an effect among billionaires as of yet,” Gross said. Since 2007, the average per-capita wealth of billionaires residing in the UAE has dropped 10 per cent, though the number of billionaires has doubled, WealthInsight said. Source – Agencies ©2009 Copyright by Invest In India

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Indian’s apex bank, RBI’s decision to cut cash reserve ratio (CRR) will help improve the liquidity position of various sectors, including realty, but realtors feel that interest rates should be brought down to boost housing demand. Lalit Kumar Jai, President of Confederation of Real Estate Developers’ Association of India (CREDAI) said, “The CRR cut will bring in liquidity. It will help the real estate market which is cash starved. However, it is important to see the interest rate shall have to come down to facilitate the home seekers to buy homes. In its third quarterly review of the monetary policy, RBI on Tuesday injected Rs 32,000 crore into the system by lowering the CRR by 50 basis point but kept the short-term lending rate unchanged in view of persisting inflationary concerns. Echoing the view, Unitech Managing Director Ajay Chandra said: “A reduction in the CRR is a positive move from the RBI as it will increase the credit-supply to different sectors of the economy.” Chandra noted that an increase in the credit supply would also benefit the realty sector. CREDAI Chairman Pradeep Jain said the apex bank has given a signal that interest rates would come down. Credai Chairman said that RBI has attempted to do a delicate balancing act between the need for growth and urgency of containing price line. CHD Developers Managing Director Gaurav , said “This is just an indication that the sequence of rate rise is now behind us, the signal will serve as a boost for the real estate sector with sentiments of buyers turning favorable. This move is set to help stimulate growth.”   Source – PTI ©2009 Copyright by Invest In India

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The RBI has provided rates that banks used to give for one year deposits, all the way back to 1976. Here’s a plot of the “high” rates today (9.25 to 10%). Much of the 90s was a 10 to 12% rate, and I remember that many bonds (IDBI etc.) offered 12%-14% to retail buyers. (We still own some 17 year bonds at 14% or so, which mature in 2016. ) Tweet

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Several major international airlines seem to be wary of picking up stakes in the loss-making Indian carriers at this stage, even as the government plans to take steps to allow them to do so.Even before the government formally notified changes in the aviation policy that currently bars foreign carriers from investing in Indian airlines, officials and spokespersons of major international airlines have said they were not interested in investing in the Indian aviation market. Airways like Virgin Atlantic, Lufthansa and Emirates said they were not interested. “We are focussed on growing our business out of Delhi to London Heathrow and New York and as such we are not interested in investing in India’s domestic carriers,” Edmond Rose, Director Commercial and Revenue Planning of Virgin Atlantic, said in a statement when asked whether they would like to invest in any Indian carrier. “Emirates has no plans to acquire a stake in another airline in India or anywhere else. We are busy focusing on many aspects of our own growth including the launch of flights to five new destinations in as many months,” Emirates Senior Vice President, said.  Lufthansa spokesperson said the airline currently has “no plans to take up equity stakes in any Indian airline. Our strategy to achieve a strong presence in India is working”. A spokesperson of the International Airlines Group (IAG), said, “The process to allow foreign airlines to invest in Indian carriers has not yet been fully approved. So it would be wrong to speculate about IAG’s interest in any Indian airlines at this stage.” Kuala Lumpur-based Air Asia said it would examine all options, including setting up a subsidiary airline in India, rather than look at investing in an Indian carrier. Its CEO Tony Fernandes said, “Some Indian companies will require a lot to be recapitalised. However, since the news is new we will examine all options.” Singapore Airlines Vice-President (Public Affairs) Nick Ionides said the airline keeps all investment options open but added that there were no discussions taking place on the purchase of stake in an Indian carrier. “We aren’t in a position to comment on hypothetical questions.” ©2009 Copyright by Invest In India

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When you invest in a fixed deposit, the interest you receive is taxed as income. At the highest tax bracket, you pay 30% on that interest. That means a bank FD that gives you 10% really only gives you 7%. Even if you a a longer term investor in the FD, you pay interest every year. (And the bank deducts 10% as TDS before you even see it) The government has allowed certain entities to give you tax free interest; if you are an investor for the long term, 10 to 15 years, in certain infrastructure companies. Two of them have already issued bonds (PFC and NHAI) and if you missed those, you can subscribe to the next two coming up from Jan 27: HUDCO and IRFC. Issue IRFC HUDCO Size Upto 6300 cr. Upto 4685 cr. Interest Rate     10 yr bond     Retail * 8.15% 8.22% Others 8.00% 8.10% 15 yr bond     Retail * 8.30% 8.35% Others 8.10% 8.20% Minimum Rs. 10,000 Rs. 10,000       Opens 27-Jan-12 27-Jan-12 Closes 10-Feb-12 6-Feb-12 * Retail applications are for individuals, for under Rs. 5 lakh, and the higher interest rate is only for the first allotment. Any sale of the security will drop the interest down to the “Others” level. The bonds will list on the NSE and BSE, and if you can’t get in now, you can buy them off the exchange. (PFC and NHAI bonds will list soon) and the interest will still be tax free. However, in the above two issues, the “coupon” rate paid on the bond will drop, for retail investors. Since the bond interest is tax free, this is equivalent to a high interest yielding fixed deposit based on the tax bracket you are in. That is, if you had an interest rate of 30% at your highest tax bracket, a coupon rate of 8.35% means an equivalent FD of 12.08%. But this is a silly comparison . There is no liquidity – of course the bonds are listed but there’s no guarantee that there will be someone willing to buy. Even if there is, the price someone may be willing to pay could be far lesser – in terms of effective yield – than the price you want (An FD can always be returned early with no loss of principal and perhaps a little penalty on the interest) This is like a 15 year FD. You needn’t invest in an FD to get a similar return, of course. If you’re thinking of exiting in a few years, you may be better off with a longer term FMP, where the post tax returns are around 9-10% nowadays. These mutual funds lock you in similarly, and are listed, but the interest is not taxed till maturity; they tend to yield between 9-11% (this is the rate for long term commercial bonds nowadays) and the fact that you get an indexation benefit will make much of the gain non-taxable. (A 9% return with inflation at 8% means only the excess 1% is chargeable to tax – even at the highest bracket you’ll make 8.70%) The comparison, for those who are thinking of this bond as a 1 to 5 year investment, is better off with a similar tenure FMP, or if you choose to be a little creative, with a bond fund. I strongly believe that we have overcomplicated our options. Thinking in terms of “you can’t compare this with a gilt fund” etc. are simply skirting the issue. People like to think in terms of “debt” versus “equity”, and then long versus short term. FD is debt, as is a bond fund, as is a HUDCO bond. If interest rates fall, a bond fund and the HUDCO bond will increase in market price, but nothing changes with the FD. If you are in for more than five years, and believe that interest rates will fall to below current levels, the HUDCO or IRFC bond is a good idea. If you’re in for less than five years, consider a longer term FMP or a bond fund instead. If you’re retired, these bonds are fabulous, because they give you cash flow on which you need to pay no taxes. And for fifteen years! And finally if you’re a short term investor with the idea that you’ll speculate on these bonds, the trade will clear itself when the PFC/NHAI bonds list either Friday or Monday. Wait to see if there’s a listing gain available. Tweet

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When you invest in a fixed deposit, the interest you receive is taxed as income. At the highest tax bracket, you pay 30% on that interest. That means a bank FD that gives you 10% really only gives you 7%. Even if you a a longer term investor in the FD, you pay interest every year. (And the bank deducts 10% as TDS before you even see it) The government has allowed certain entities to give you tax free interest; if you are an investor for the long term, 10 to 15 years, in certain infrastructure companies. Two of them have already issued bonds (PFC and NHAI) and if you missed those, you can subscribe to the next two coming up from Jan 27: HUDCO and IRFC. Issue IRFC HUDCO Size Upto 6300 cr. Upto 4685 cr. Interest Rate     10 yr bond     Retail * 8.15% 8.22% Others 8.00% 8.10% 15 yr bond     Retail * 8.30% 8.35% Others 8.10% 8.20% Minimum Rs. 10,000 Rs. 10,000       Opens 27-Jan-12 27-Jan-12 Closes 10-Feb-12 6-Feb-12 * Retail applications are for individuals, for under Rs. 5 lakh, and the higher interest rate is only for the first allotment. Any sale of the security will drop the interest down to the “Others” level. The bonds will list on the NSE and BSE, and if you can’t get in now, you can buy them off the exchange. (PFC and NHAI bonds will list soon) and the interest will still be tax free. However, in the above two issues, the “coupon” rate paid on the bond will drop, for retail investors. Since the bond interest is tax free, this is equivalent to a high interest yielding fixed deposit based on the tax bracket you are in. That is, if you had an interest rate of 30% at your highest tax bracket, a coupon rate of 8.35% means an equivalent FD of 12.08%. But this is a silly comparison . There is no liquidity – of course the bonds are listed but there’s no guarantee that there will be someone willing to buy. Even if there is, the price someone may be willing to pay could be far lesser – in terms of effective yield – than the price you want (An FD can always be returned early with no loss of principal and perhaps a little penalty on the interest) This is like a 15 year FD. You needn’t invest in an FD to get a similar return, of course. If you’re thinking of exiting in a few years, you may be better off with a longer term FMP, where the post tax returns are around 9-10% nowadays. These mutual funds lock you in similarly, and are listed, but the interest is not taxed till maturity; they tend to yield between 9-11% (this is the rate for long term commercial bonds nowadays) and the fact that you get an indexation benefit will make much of the gain non-taxable. (A 9% return with inflation at 8% means only the excess 1% is chargeable to tax – even at the highest bracket you’ll make 8.70%) The comparison, for those who are thinking of this bond as a 1 to 5 year investment, is better off with a similar tenure FMP, or if you choose to be a little creative, with a bond fund. I strongly believe that we have overcomplicated our options. Thinking in terms of “you can’t compare this with a gilt fund” etc. are simply skirting the issue. People like to think in terms of “debt” versus “equity”, and then long versus short term. FD is debt, as is a bond fund, as is a HUDCO bond. If interest rates fall, a bond fund and the HUDCO bond will increase in market price, but nothing changes with the FD. If you are in for more than five years, and believe that interest rates will fall to below current levels, the HUDCO or IRFC bond is a good idea. If you’re in for less than five years, consider a longer term FMP or a bond fund instead. If you’re retired, these bonds are fabulous, because they give you cash flow on which you need to pay no taxes. And for fifteen years! And finally if you’re a short term investor with the idea that you’ll speculate on these bonds, the trade will clear itself when the PFC/NHAI bonds list either Friday or Monday. Wait to see if there’s a listing gain available. Tweet

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As per the latest Big Mac index, compiled by the Economist magazine to analyse purchasing-power parity of various global currencies, Indian rupee is most undervalued. The price of Big Mac burgers of McDonald`s is considered for the index for the reason of the presence of fast-food chain across most of the countries and the magazine calls this theory `burgernomics`.   As per the latest index, prepared on basis of market exchange rate as on January 11, its price is the highest at USD 6.81 in Switzerland, while the same is sold in India for just USD 1.62 — the lowest in the world. “The cheapest burger is found in India, costing just USD 1.62. Though because Big Macs are not sold in India, we take the price of a Maharaja Mac, which is made with chicken instead of beef,” it added. Maharaja Mac is the closest Indian equivalent of Big Mac burgers at the Indian outlets of McDonald`s. “Nonetheless, our index suggests the rupee is 60 percent undercooked. The euro, which recently fell to a 16-month low against the dollar, is now trading at less than euro 1.30 to the greenback,” the Economist noted. Switzerland is followed by Norway, Sweden, Brazil, Australia, Argentina, Canada, Uruguay and Euro area among the countries with the top most overvalued currencies against the US dollar. Among the places with most undervalued currencies, India is followed by Ukraine, Hong Kong, Malaysia, China, South Africa, Thailand, Indonesia, Taiwan, Sri Lanka and Russia.   Source – PTI ©2009 Copyright by Invest In India

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At Yahoo, I write on the Irrelevance Of The Sensex : In a recent trader meet, a speaker asked on stage where the market closed last. Answers were “4714″ and other figures around the 4700 number, but the speaker was looking for another answer. It dawned on us soon that he was looking for the Sensex, which none of us knew even to the closest one thousand. It was around 15,700, said the speaker, dismayed at the total lack of awareness because his slide said “Sensex: The Index The World Tracks”. To a certain extent, that remains true. People do talk about the Sensex. “I’ll be a buyer below 16,000″, you hear. Newspapers and TV channels cheer the appearance of “20,000″, a number only associated with the Sensex. But the irrelevance is mostly to the trading community. Volumes have deserted the Bombay Stock Exchange, for the “better” deal at the National Stock Exchange (NSE). Looking at the “cash” turnover, the gap between the two exchanges has widened from 2000 onwards. What has changed since 2000? For one, the derivatives market has flourished on the NSE, with volumes far exceeding the cash markets. NSE started futures on the Nifty in 2000, following up with stock futures and options later. BSE, while having started at the same time with derivatives that replaced the “badla” system, has only recently promoted them. Given that the cash and futures markets are closely related — traders can arbitrage the two markets — it is no wonder that NSE still has four times the volumes of the BSE in cash. Higher volumes means you can buy at a lower “impact” cost due to the presence of more sellers; even those that track the Sensex will buy on the NSE. But the BSE existed a long time before the NSE. The term Sensex was coined in 1986, but the BSE has existed for over 135 years. There are more stocks listed on the BSE than on the NSE, which was established in 1994. Yet, the BSE lost the battle! To an extent there were regulatory restrictions — NSE could easily provide terminals nationwide, while BSE only allowed to a slew of sub-brokers, which added to delays and costs. But the BSE wasn’t competitive. Broker cartels were common. Trades were only settled every fortnight, with small defaults and payment crises common. In 1995, the exchange was closed for three days after a default of Rs. 18 crore on a single scrip. The early days involved little technology; brokers would send their agents to the trading pit, when they signalled trades to each other using hand signals and shouting — the “open outcry” model. As an investor, you told your broker to buy a share, and miraculously, you would be given the highest price of the day, and there was really no way for you to verify. The NSE started with “screen” trading, where all trades would happen in an automated method that matched the best buyer with the best seller, and they offered verifiability where you could check trades and prices. There was a clearing corporation to limit default risk, and NSDL set up to do dematerialized settlement instead of paper. Also, the NSE wasn’t managed by brokers; it was owned by institutions and managed professionally, which led to less conflict of interest. From here on, the NSE gained favour even though BSE followed through with similar technology and practices. The issue is trust: the BSE appears to favour its own. In 2006, a dealing arm of a broker sold eleven lakh shares of Tulip IT Services at a price of Rs. 0.25 , on the day of its first listing, with the price having settled at Rs. 185 towards the end of the day. He claimed a typing mistake, costing over Rs. 12 crore — now if this were you or me, we would be asked to suck it up. But the BSE did something dramatic : It decided that all orders executed at less than Rs. 96 would be deemed to have executed at Rs. 171, the average price of the day. What then of the person who thought he got a deal at 0.25 and sold at Rs. 100? He now gets a loss of Rs. 71 instead. This is blatantly unfair — and a loss of Rs. 12 crore is not huge; the seller should have borne it, or the exchange should have covered for it, but it can’t be foisted on other traders who participated and assumed that the price they were seeing was correct. (Indeed, an instance of “manipulation” where someone placed a rogue order for Tulip at Rs. 1 per share has been penalized by SEBI ) An ex-BSE-president Anand Rathi had asked for data about who was trading what — information that would benefit him as a broker, and which eventually caused him to resign. Since then, brokers have been removed from senior positions in the exchange, and the management team is now professional staff including a suave CEO. Technology has been upgraded, and there is now complete electronic order matching and verification. But this hasn’t stemmed the rot. Recently, a glitch in algorithmic trading caused the futures market to crash during “mahurat” trading, a special short session held on Diwali for traditional reasons. The decision, once the glitch was found, was to annul all trades in derivatives on that day. What then, if you took on a counter-trade in the cash segment or in the NSE derivatives market? You’re left with an open position for no fault of yours. And the point isn’t that there was a genuine issue; the point is that in a fair market, you would assume that: a) The “rogue” trader should have been penalized to the highest extent possible. b) There would be much more transparency about what went wrong, how they plan to avoid it in future, and going forward, what the process for “annulment of trades” is. We have none of this, and if you asked a market participant today, he wouldn’t expect it either, because it’s the BSE. Sure, we know the BSE and the Sensex because of the past, but if things are to change, they need to attract investor and trader volumes. For that, there needs to be faith that the exchange will treat investors fairly and not resort to knee jerk reactions like cancelling all trades. Sadly, every incident that undermines trust will result in the Sensex being only an over glorified number, the real money will continue to be in the Nifty. Tweet

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The International Labour Organisation (ILO) think India is expected to withstand the latest global slowdown better than most countries, if it ensures rising income levels for the working class and enough jobs for a growing working-age population. “The main challenge is not unemployment, but rather the high degree of informality that persists despite strong growth,”said the report. “The robust growth witnessed in the South Asian region was driven largely by India and was largely due to the rapid rise in labour productivity, rather than an expansion in employment,” the report, titled, ‘Global Employment Trends 2012: Preventing a Deeper Jobs Crisis’, said. This situation is prominent in India, which accounts for 74 per cent of the South Asia region’s labour force. In India, total employment grew by only 0.1 per cent over the five years to 2009-10 — from 457.9 million in 2004-05 to 458.4 million in 2009/10 — while labour productivity grew by more than 34 per cent over this period. A major reason for the slow growth in employment in recent years is the fall in female participation in the labour force. This has been most pronounced in India, where participation of women in labour activities fell from 49.4 per cent in 2004-05 to 37.8 per cent in 2009-10 for rural females and from 24.4 per cent to 19.4 per cent for urban females. “Overall, the worsening economic conditions will make it more challenging for the South Asia region to promote the creation of productive jobs in the non-farm sector and continue the battle against the persistence of informality, vulnerable employment and specific barriers for women and youth in the labour market,” the report said. Source – Agencies ©2009 Copyright by Invest In India

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