Greece finally has a deal. We don’t know if this is agreed upon in pure exhaustion after 17 hours of negotiations, but it’s something that involved total capitulation by Greece . It is even worse than the deal that Greece was getting earlier (before the referendum). It gives Tsipras, the Greek PM, three days to get the major demands passed through the Greek parliament. We saw a few things earlier, in our post, which I’ll paste here: What Now? By July 15, Tsipras must do the following, through parliament: they have to raise the sales tax, and cut pensions. Any misses in the deficit/surplus expected will automatically trigger some very specific spending cuts Greece must keep the statistics and the privatization piece completely independent of the Greek government (or limit the influence) Once this is done, the parliaments of Germany, Austria, Holland, Finland and others that previously opposed a deal will have to say okay to doing the bailout.… (Read On…)

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Consumer price inflation picked up a little more than expected in June 2015, with the index moving up 5.4% more than the same time last year. This is the highest headline number since October 2014, and a little surprising since there wasn’t anything like this that was expected: Both Rural and Urban inflation have perked up, and the increase in inflation is much more in rural: Food inflation is up over the last month , but so are every other subcomponent  except education and housing. The upward pressure on inflation is surprisingly large. And finally, what is a serious worry: Core inflation comes back up to the highest level since October 2014. Remember that core inflation is the index minus food and fuel. If we remove those, core inflation is up to 4.6%, the highest since October 2014. This is important because in October 2014, crude crashed. That took a lot of prices down.… (Read On…)

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SEBI has changed the game for derivatives traders. A new circular (HT Vashistha ) has increased the lot sizes of each contract, so that: The minimum contract size has been upped from Rs. 2 lakh to Rs. 5 lakh. This applies from contracts for the November expiry (that is, for all trading after the October contract expiry) Which means the first “new” lot size will be applicable from the end of July (after the July expiry, the next set of contracts are Aug, Sep, Oct) Lot sizes will be reevaluated every six months. For stocks, futures and options contracts will have sizes of a minimum of 50 with increments or decrements of 25 shares. If even at 50 shares the contract size is greater than 10 lakhs, then the minimum will be 10 shares with increments of 5 shares. For indexes, the minimum is 10, with an increment of 5. So a Bosch at Rs.… (Read On…)

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The weekend is over and there is no Greece deal yet. The latest is that the European Troika are not okay with Greek PM Tsipras capitulating completely on Friday and accepting all their earlier demands, and has asked for : All this, plus 50 billion euro worth of Greek assets to be taken out of Greece and placed in a Euro body which will be sold to pay back debt. And all of this has to be okayed by the Greek Parliament and the Greek government by wednesday.  Here’s the full 4pg eurogroup document on #Greece , inc “time-out”, total amt needed (€82-6bn) & reform proposals pic.twitter.com/sKUpbykcBX — Ed Conway (@EdConwaySky) July 12, 2015 If not this, then they suggest a “temporary” Grexit, for five years, after which Greece may be asked to return to the Euro. Our View : This makes no sense. The idea is: Humiliate Greece for using the referendum ploy and make it worse for Tsipras Force Tsipras to resign because he will have no face if he accepts these terms Force Greece out of the Euro in any manner possible The last point is evident: if banks are closed for two weeks, there is now little time left.… (Read On…)

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The rest of this content is only available to premium members. Register for a premium membership today ! Apart from this content you will get our proprietary research and weekly newsletter too! Already a subscriber? Log in now !… (Read On…)

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From the country of we-will-find-you-and-then-we-will-kill-you if you sell shares:  ( link ) All listed companies,   To support shareholding increase by listed companies’ shareholders and their concerted actors as well as stabilize the capital market and protect investors’ interests, the Shanghai Stock Exchange (SSE) hereby makes notification on relevant issues as follows:   1. Relevant regulations in Article 9 of “Code of Conduct for Shareholding Increase by Listed Companies’ Shareholders and Their Concerted Actors” and Subparagraphs (1), (2) and (4) of Article 4.5 of “Code of Conduct of Controlling Shareholder and Actual Controller of Listed Company” published by the SSE shall not be applicable to the following situation: a listed company’s shareholders, controlling shareholders and their concerted actors holding more than 30% of its shares increase shareholding and promise not to lessen shareholding in the next 6 months, when stock price of the company has accumulatively dropped by over 30% for 10 consecutive trading days. … (Read On…)

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The Index of Industrial Production (IIP) for May 2015 is lower at 2.7% compared to April. Who am I kidding? This is just MISERABLE. This is the kind of number we should be kicking ourselves about. How can be we be in low single digits, or NEGATIVE, for the last THREE years? This is either a stupid statistic, or we are simply not making things in any reasonable growth measure. There is something called “Make in India” and we are simply not doing it. Period. Okay, rant over. Now for the visual thingies. Even the comparatively awesome data in April (+4.05%) has been updated down to 3.36%, which is as good as abysmal. And then, you have the slowdown in manufacturing which forms the majority of IIP. Finally, the use-based indexes: (Click for larger image) Nothing in there looks decent, except that consumer goods has gone to 0%. At least it’s not negative.… (Read On…)

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In what is just hilarious, the management of Sharon Bio-Medicine has this to say to an NSE request for why the price went up: Share Price of our Company has fallen from Rs. 90/- per share to Rs. 12.50 per share in the last one year. The reason for fall in the share price was as the losses were suffered by our company. Recently, the share price was Rs. 12.50 per share and the same has been increased to Rs 20.50 as today’s price. The increase in share price may be as the share price of Sharon Bio-Medicine is already gone down and investors may be looking for the best of the opportunity to buy the shares at this point. Meanwhile, from June 29, 2015 at one of the manufacturing plant at MIDC, Taloja near Navi Mumbai the US FDA is concluded and we are understanding the outcome of US FDA Inspection. … (Read On…)

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AChina’s continuing to go absolutely bonkers. After a market crash of 30% that still leaves it about 70% higher than a year back, the Chinese Authorities have banned people from selling . Which as you might realize, is the stupidest way to stop the market from crashing. These people can’t sell for the next 6 months: Shareholders that own more than 5% Executives and directors of companies And Trading Halts, and Even Cops! To stop their shares from falling further many companies are telling stock exchanges to halt trading in their shares . The suspensions have locked up $1.4 trillion of shares, or 21 percent of China’s market capitalization, and are becoming increasingly popular as equity prices tumble. If not for the halts, a 28 percent plunge in the Shanghai Composite Index from its June 12 peak would probably be even deeper. Some of these companies, it seems, have pledged shares and borrowed money .… (Read On…)

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This may be a horrible time to fill up the portfolio, right when stocks seem like they’re peaking. But a momentum call comes our way again. The rest of this content is only available to premium members. Register for a premium membership today ! Apart from this content you will get our proprietary research and weekly newsletter too! Already a subscriber? Log in now !… (Read On…)

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