india

Premium: Of Sun Pharma, Infy and Some Results That Spooked The Day

by Paul Joseph July 23, 2015 Featured

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Optionalysis: Retail Traders Short Options More than Any Other Market Participant, and Smart Money OI Sets Direction

by Paul Joseph July 20, 2015 Featured

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Charts: India’s Trade 14% Lower, Even as Deficit Improves With 35% Drop in Gold and Crude Imports

by Paul Joseph July 16, 2015 Featured

India’s trade continues to show two very distinct signals. First, that the deficit is down. Look at the merchandise trade stats for June 2015: the deficit is just $10 billion, which is about as low as it has been in the last few months. Imports are lower both due to lower crude oil imports (due to the lower crude prices, not lower consumption) and lower gold imports (which is both due to lower gold prices and lower consumption). Gold imports are down 37% from last year ( DNA ) and in volume terms has fallen from 221 tonnes for the AMJ quarter 2014 to 203 tonnes in 2015. ( Hindu ) This is great for the current account, where gold has been the make-or-break for us. If you take away gold imports, we actually are a surplus on the current account! The Bad Part: Trade Volumes In The Toilet But wait.… (Read On…)

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Why does RBI Sell Bonds, Like It Has Done Today?

by Paul Joseph July 14, 2015 Featured

RBI is doing an OMO sale of government bonds today, and has sold Rs. 8270 cr. worth bonds. Why? This is a good question. Why does RBI sell bonds? Who gets the money? Answer: Not the government. Sure, RBI sells government bonds (as a merchant banker) on every Friday. That’s when the government gets money. A lot of it. 15,000 cr. will be sold just this Friday. But that’s not the same thing as this OMO sale. When the government sells bonds, the RBI is just a banker, organizing the sale through an auction. But RBI also owns some government bonds on its own. RBI is a separate entity and has its own balance sheet, and on that, it owns assets like dollar reserves, rupee bonds etc. It doesn’t buy them from the government (it’s not allowed to) but it buys them from the market, as purchase operations. It has done this consistently in the past, buying bonds on the market as required.… (Read On…)

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CPI Inflation for June 2015 at 5.4%, Highest in 8 months But Not In Troublesome Zone Yet

by Paul Joseph July 13, 2015 Featured

Consumer price inflation picked up a little more than expected in June 2015, with the index moving up 5.4% more than the same time last year. This is the highest headline number since October 2014, and a little surprising since there wasn’t anything like this that was expected: Both Rural and Urban inflation have perked up, and the increase in inflation is much more in rural: Food inflation is up over the last month , but so are every other subcomponent  except education and housing. The upward pressure on inflation is surprisingly large. And finally, what is a serious worry: Core inflation comes back up to the highest level since October 2014. Remember that core inflation is the index minus food and fuel. If we remove those, core inflation is up to 4.6%, the highest since October 2014. This is important because in October 2014, crude crashed. That took a lot of prices down.… (Read On…)

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Greece Has Rough Choices: Temporary Grexit or Much More Austerity

by Paul Joseph July 12, 2015 Featured

The weekend is over and there is no Greece deal yet. The latest is that the European Troika are not okay with Greek PM Tsipras capitulating completely on Friday and accepting all their earlier demands, and has asked for : All this, plus 50 billion euro worth of Greek assets to be taken out of Greece and placed in a Euro body which will be sold to pay back debt. And all of this has to be okayed by the Greek Parliament and the Greek government by wednesday.  Here’s the full 4pg eurogroup document on #Greece , inc “time-out”, total amt needed (€82-6bn) & reform proposals pic.twitter.com/sKUpbykcBX — Ed Conway (@EdConwaySky) July 12, 2015 If not this, then they suggest a “temporary” Grexit, for five years, after which Greece may be asked to return to the Euro. Our View : This makes no sense. The idea is: Humiliate Greece for using the referendum ploy and make it worse for Tsipras Force Tsipras to resign because he will have no face if he accepts these terms Force Greece out of the Euro in any manner possible The last point is evident: if banks are closed for two weeks, there is now little time left.… (Read On…)

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Portfolio: The 10th Stock Gets Added, a PSU OMC

by Paul Joseph July 8, 2015 Featured

This may be a horrible time to fill up the portfolio, right when stocks seem like they’re peaking. But a momentum call comes our way again. The rest of this content is only available to premium members. Register for a premium membership today ! Apart from this content you will get our proprietary research and weekly newsletter too! Already a subscriber? Log in now !… (Read On…)

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Why You Shouldn’t Buy ULIPs: After We Confuse You, We Underperform Everything

by Paul Joseph July 7, 2015 Featured

I don’t generally write about ULIPs but once in a while it’s useful to see how bad these products have been. We wrote a long post about HDFC Crest which was being missold by bankers as if it was a fixed deposit. See: Don’t Buy HDFC Crest, It’s Not a Fixed Deposit Now there are many reasons why the ULIP is a bad product. Very little insurance Useless Guarantee High Costs (that are removed as fees in terms of number of units, thus making it non-transparent too!) Elusive Tax Benefits And Lastly Substandard returns compared to other instruments. But Just Compare Returns, No? Forget all the fees and all that. That’s highway robbery and terribly disgusting behaviour but what you can do, these are relationship managers with targets who don’t give a damn. One day, banks will be classified as brokers and we’ll get our day in court. Meanwhile, let’s see how bad the performance of a ULIP is.… (Read On…)

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Premium: A Player That Has More Cash Than Its Entire Market Cap, Shows Signs of Breaking Out

by Paul Joseph July 6, 2015 Featured

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Optionalysis: Put-Call Ratio and MA20 Update – No Trade, But Signs of Peaking

by Paul Joseph July 6, 2015 Featured

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